IDC Stands Firm on Windows Phone Taking the #2 Spot by 2015

IDC released their market expectations through a press release today and they stand firm on their belief that Windows Phone will take off around the time that the Nokia partnership kicks in late this year. Here is the prediction for Windows Phone:

Windows Phone7/Windows Mobile will benefit from Nokia’s support, scope, and breadth within markets where Nokia has historically had a strong presence. Until Nokia begins introducing Windows Phone-powered smartphones in large volumes in 2012, Windows Phone 7/Windows Mobile will only capture a small share of the market as the release of Mango-powered smartphones are not expected to reach the market until late 2011. Nevertheless, assuming that Nokia’s transition to Windows Phone goes smoothly, the OS is expected to defend a number 2 rank and more than 20% share in 2015.

Worldwide Smartphone Operating System 2011 and 2015 Market Share and 2011-2015 Compound Annual Growth Rate

Operating System

2011 Market Share

2015 Market Share

2011-2015 Unit CAGR

Android

38.9%

43.8%

23.7%

BlackBerry OS

14.2%

13.4%

18.3%

Symbian

20.6%

0.1%

-68.8%

iOS

18.2%

16.9%

17.9%

Windows Phone 7/Windows Mobile

3.8%

20.3%

82.3%

Others

4.3%

5.5%

27.6%

Total

100.0%

100.0%

20.1%

Source: IDC Worldwide Quarterly Mobile Phone Tracker, June 9, 2011.

This would put Android as the number 1 smartphone OS on the market and iOS from Apple as number 3. It’s great to see analyst predicting the rise of Windows Phone, but none of this is expected to happen until Nokia gets in the game and Mango hits devices later this year.

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